Monday, December 11, 2006

The Countdown Begins

The number of Sensex stocks which gain every month is reducing steadily. The market appears to be heading for a correction, says Ajay Jindal


WHEN brokers start trying funny stunts to rig the market (not that they don’t try all the time) it is time to be cautious. It ap pears that there was a motivat ed attempt to make the Sensex touch 14000 level last week When the market opened last Tuesday, a broker placed an or der in Reliance Industries at price much higher than Mon day’s closing, single-handedly sending the Sensex soaring. As of now, it isn’t clear what ac tion is being taken by the regu latory authorities or the con cerned exchange to curb this kind of suspicious activity.

For the retail investor, this suggests it is time to be cautious The market has been on a one way mad ride since June. The Sensex has now risen 57% in less than six months from the June level of 8900. The market needs to step back a bit and relax for a while.

Even Sensex scrips seem to be getting tired of this hard climb. There are signs that the strength of the Sensex rally is dissipating. The Sensex rise is not broad-based anymore. In the past four months, the number of companies which have risen for each month has reduced steadily.



In November ’06, only 17 out of the 30 Sensex companies closed the month higher than their October closing. In contrast, in August ’06, 29 of the 30 Sensex companies had risen. Between August and November, the number of companies which rose for the month has fallen steadily. A majority of Sensex stocks is still rising, which perhaps explains why the Sensex itself has continued to rise every month.

It is quite apparent that there need not be a great relation between the rise of the Sensex and the number of Sensex stocks which rise (see table ‘Too Fast, Too Furious?’). For example, in September ’06, 25 of the 30 Sensex stocks made gains, while the Sensex rose 755 points in that month. In November, the Sensex gained almost 738 points, while only 17 companies rose.

The movement of Sensex companies in November has been rather peculiar, and also somewhat different from earlier months. In November, a few Sensex stocks witnessed a sharp increase, much larger that what is normally expected from a large cap. This is, perhaps, another factor which explains the almost unchanged pace of the rise of the Sensex, despite the falling number of participating stocks participating.

In November ’06, for example, as many as 10 Sensex stocks gained more than 10%. In contrast, in August and September ’06, only seven Sensex stocks rose more than 10%. In October ’06, only four stocks rose more than 10%. So, if only a few Sensex stocks are rising, then they should make sharp gains for the Sensex to go up strongly.

The maximum rise of any Sensex stock in a month was seen in November, when Gujarat Ambuja Cements gained rose 21%. In the previous three months, the maximum rise of any company listed on the Sensex was normally around 15-16%. In other words, investors are picking up a few Sensex stocks now, and pushing them up to ensure that the Sensex keeps rising.

Sooner or later, this game has to stop. A section of the market believes a correction could take place once the Cairn Energy IPO is through. We will know in a week.

(Courtsey: Economic Times, Bangalore Ed, December 11, 2006 : Article )

Friday, November 03, 2006

A Simple Calculation!

We all know about the growth story of Infosys. How about the stock? Lets find out. Infosys was founded by Narayana Murthy along with some others in 1981. It came with an IPO in 1993 at the price of Rs. 95. Everybody who applied got the shares. Many missed the Diamond oppurtunity by not applying. Suppose that a person applied for 100 Shares. It would cost him Rs. 9500. Let us assume that he is holding the same position till today. What will be the value now? Let us calculate.

Remember that in these 13 years Infosys would have offered many dividends. Let us keep this aside and calculate the value of shares alone. Soon after IPO, Infy gave 1:1 bonus in 1994. So, our 100 shares will be 200 in 1994. Again they gave 1:1 bonus in 1996. That will take the count to 400 shares. And again in 1998 they offered bonus of 1:3 shares. That will take our count to 1600 shares. In 2000, they split the stocks (Rs. 10 FC to Rs. 5 FC). This will take our count to 3200 shares. In 2004, again they announced 1:1 bonus. It will take our count to 6400 shares. Recently, two months back they gave bonus shares in the ratio of 1:1. Now, the count of ours would be 12800.

Today(13/10/2006), I checked the CMP of Infosys. Its Rs. 2070. So, what will be the value of our shares? 12800 x 2070 = Rs. 2,64,96,000. Yes, its Two Crores Sixty Four Lakh and Ninety Six Thousand only.

What other investment would have taken to this level? Real-Estate? Bank Deposit? Gold? I don't think so. A Bank deposit of Rs. 9500 in the same year at the rate of 12% would have hardly fetched us Rs. 38,000 by this time

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

know your broker

Hello
A blog address i found. Can be good for your reference. I have not gone through it though
 
Regards
Kanuj

--
Just Go & Mail...that's what i call GMail

Wednesday, May 10, 2006

Market | At what price will Reliance Petroleum list tomorrow?

The biggest question everywhere around..."At what price will Reliance Petroleum list tomorrow?" will be answered tomorrow!!
The following article details a bit...

.....................................................

Reliance Petroleum created history with its IPO and now it will be listing on the bourses on May 11, 2006 on the BSE and NSE.

The issue was made to part finance the Rs 27,000 crore (Rs 270 billion) export-oriented refinery being set up in a special economic zone, SEZ, at Jamnagar in Gujarat. The export-oriented refinery will have a capacity to process 5,80,000 barrels per day making it the sixth largest refinery in the world. As a part of this project, RPL is also setting up a 900,000 tonne per annum polypropylene plant. The project is likely to go on stream by December 2008.

Moneycontrol spoke to experts on the latest offering from the Reliance stable and its future prospects.

RS Iyer of KR Choksey is expecting Reliance Petroleum to list above Rs 95. He believes that it will stabilize between the Rs 75-80 range.

An investor should wait for atleast six months and gauge its future prospects before taking a decision on whether to hold or sell.



Read the complete article here
Courtesy: Moneycontrol.com

Tuesday, May 09, 2006

Mutual Funds ranking for the year

Hello
Following links might help you with choosing Mutual Funds
 
Kanuj


Yahoo! Mail goes everywhere you do. Get it on your phone.

Wednesday, May 03, 2006

Reliance Petroleum IPO Allotment

Following is the link for the allotment status check for Reliance Petroleum IPO
http://karisma.karvy.com/jsp/Ipo_Status.jsp?
Just enter your application number and select the company name.
According to the general information, the retail investors who have applied for 1600 shares have received confirmed allotment of 116 shares.

Thursday, April 13, 2006

Market sheds 425 points in two consecutive days

As per the predictions the market is going through corrections...
From the NDTV reporting enclave : The Sensex shed 425 points in two consecutive trading sessions!The markets ended weak on Thursday with the benchmark index closing at 11,237 levels. It slipped to a low of 11,008 levels in intra-day trade.In the broader markets, the Nifty, shed a per cent or 34 points to close at 3345 levels.

Check out http://www.ndtvprofit.com/homepage/storybusiness.asp?slug=Sensex+slips+118+points&id=30729

BSE Trading Holidays list 2006

The Exchange will observe the following Trading Holidays during theCalendar year January to December, 2006

11th January, 2006 - Wednesday : Bakri-Id
26th January, 2006 - Thursday : Republic Day
9th February, 2006 - Thursday :Moharum
15th March, 2006 - Wednesday : Holi (2 nd day)
6th April, 2006 - Thursday : Ram Navami
11th April, 2006 - Tuesday : Mahavir Jayanti / Id-E-Milad
14th April, 2006 - Friday : Ambedkar Jayanti / Good Friday
1th May, 2006 - Monday : Maharashtra Day
15th August, 2006 - Tuesday : Independence Day
2 nd October, 2006 - Monday : Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti / Dasera
24th October, 2006 - Tuesday : Diwali (Bhaubeej)
25th October, 2006 - Wednesday : Ramzan Id
25th December, 2006- Monday : Christmas
Muhurat Trading will be held on Saturday, 21st October 2006 (Diwali Amavasya – Laxmi Puja)

Reference Link : http://www.bseindia.com/about/listholi.asp

Disclaimer : The blogger is not responsible for any change in the above list.

NSE Trading Holidays list 2006

List of NSE Holidays

The following are the trading holidays for the calendar year 2006:

Date Day Description
11-Jan-2006 - Wednesday : Bakri Id
26-Jan-2006 - Thursday : Republic Day
09-Feb-2006 - Thursday : Moharram
15-Mar-2006 - Wednesday : Holi
06-Apr-2006 - Thursday : Ram Navami
11-Apr-2006 - Tuesday : Mahavir Jayanti/ Id-E-Milad
14-Apr-2006 - Friday : Ambedkar Jayanti/ Good Friday
01-May-2006 - Monday : Maharashtra Day
15-Aug-2006 - Tuesday : Independence Day
02-Oct-2006 - Monday : Gandhi Jayanti/ Dasara
21-Oct-2006 - Saturday : Laxmi Puja *
24-Oct-2006 - Tuesday : Bhaubeej
25-Oct-2006 - Wednesday : Ramzan Id
25-Dec-2006 - Monday : Christmas
* Muhurat trading will be conducted. Timings of Muhurat Trading shall be notified subsequently

Reference Link : http://www.nseindia.com/content/equities/eq_holidays.htm

Disclaimer : The blogger is not responsible for any change in the above list.

Tuesday, April 04, 2006

Mutual Funds | Buy | Ring Out The New

New fund offers (NFOs) are good for mutual fund companies and distributors, but not necessarily for you. So, check out the pros and cons of putting your money in NFOs, advises Muthukumar K

YOU may change the name but can never take the misplaced euphoria that surrounds IPOs. NFOs (New Fund Offering), the erstwhile mutual fund IPOs, have made record collections in the last one year. For the first quarter ended March ’06, the NFO collections were more than even FII investments. As per available data, close to Rs 19,000 crore of collections have already been made with many more new funds in the pipeline.

Clearly, this is reaching alarming proportions. There is also evidence to suggest that money is being churned. People are selling from existing schemes and investing in new ones. If this is happening, this is foolhardy behaviour by investors. The broker is taking you for a ride.
While the going is certainly good for the MF industry, is it the right investment strategy for retail investors? ET Big Bucks finds that there is compelling logic to suggest that it doesn’t make sense to put money in NFOs. If you are keen on investing in MFs, there are enough existing schemes you can look at. There are multiple reasons which suggest avoid NFOs: high cost, vague themes, no track record, and potentially unwieldy fund sizes. Also, the most basic reason is – a Rs 10 entry price is no advantage. Buying into an NFO at Rs 10 is no different from buying an existing scheme at a higher NAV of say Rs 80. The only reason to buy an NFO would be that it has a new investment theme that you like or the expenses are lower. Both reasons don’t apply anymore.
Expenses are actually a deterrent. Earlier, NFOs used to have no entry load. Now, this has changed. An NFO has about the same entry load as an existing fund. Also, higher initial expenses are charged to the scheme by MF houses. Earlier, these expenses used to be partially borne by the AMC. Now, these are fully transferred to the scheme, or in other words, to the investors. So, in effect, you as an investor, are paying for marketing the fund to yourself! These costs are amortised over five years. So, if you are buying into an old scheme, not only you have a track record to look at, the costs are also lower.
Mutual fund experts believe some thematic funds that are being launched are vague in their investment horizon and, therefore, immensely avoidable. Rural theme, lifestyle theme, for instance, could include many sectors.
Some of themes are so vague that just about any stock can fit into it. So why not stick with your plain old growth fund like say HDFC Growth Fund or Franklin Blue Chip or Reliance Growth Fund. Cement, air conditioners, paints, tea, detergents are among the 23 sectors which fit the rural theme. Even a plain-vanilla diversified equity scheme could play these themes at various points and benefit from it.
Besides, often funds don’t even strictly adhere to the themes they talk about. For example, if the largest holding in a small and medium enterprises fund is say BHEL, then you are not exactly getting what you are paying for.
Many new schemes are collecting huge amounts of money, mostly exceeding Rs 1,000 crore. So, these funds have to deploy substantial money in a short period. This can pose a problem to some extent. Many new schemes are already bigger then well-performing older schemes. While there is no consensus whether large size can be a deterrent, a mid-size fund could be possibly nimbler. Also, imagine a situation where a fund manager has only five good ideas in the month of April ’06 (given how expensive the market is now). Obviously, five ideas will have far a greater impact on a Rs 500 crore fund than say a Rs 3,000 crore fund. If the first guy allocates Rs 100 crore to each idea, the other guy has to allocate Rs 600 crore. What if there is not enough liquidity to allow this?
In other words, larger the fund, the more ideas you need. Are there enough ideas with the market at level it is?
To sum it up, investing is fairly simple and it ends with mixing and matching products of different asset classes. For any investor, balanced, equity and debt funds would suffice her/his asset allocation. With a longer history of fund performance, there is greater scope to analyse the existing schemes on risk-reward measures.
Source : Economic Times(Bangalore)-Big Bucks: dated April 03, 2006 (Request author for link)

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

RE: Finance | Market zooms beyond 11000

Hello
The question of substantiating my statement with evidence has been raised.
First, it was a prediction. As far as I believe, correct evidence cannot be given to substantiate your predictions, at least, in the world of finance-not by a novice like me.
Secondly, if you would like me to make a wild guess at the reasoning (and not evidence), it goes like this:
For the current financial year FY-05-06, stock market has been gaining new peaks every 80 or 81 days. This was not happening before this FY, or to extend it little bit, before Manmohan Singh's ministry came into power.
For this, I have attached a mail that has a financial analyst's viewpoint, who happens to by my friend, Pankaj's cousin. I have replied to him about the analysis.
I hope this will help you in some way. There are many terms, which many of us <even me> cannot understand.
Apart from this, I would like to say something even stronger. Be ready for a shock in the stock market in a month or so.
Regards
Kanuj
Original mail under consideration:
Kanuj Gupta wrote
Hello
Bhai Log!
Aaj ek aur badmashi hogayi hai! Jara sambhal ke rehne ka! Bole to thoda sa careful!
Market 11000 cross karke rukeli hai! Yes market has finally closed at above 11000 though it had crossed once earlier, but didnt stablise.
But for all those who are involved in trading business, i've one note : 'Darna zaroori hai'!!

Good Luck!
Kanuj


----------Attached mail for reference ----------
From: Kanuj Gupta
Date: Mar 27, 2006 2:55 PM
Subject: Re: your query about the indian markets
To: Pankaj Bilandani

Hi pankaj
Thanks for the great technical report. That was great. The same was what I read approx-about the P/E but that was how to select MFs. The thing about FIIs fuelling the market growth is what I told you and is very clear in daily market. whenever the market rises, it is very clearly said that FIIs are behind it...but the same question :Till how long? There has to be saturation. But what I’ll say is, still it will take time, since there are many undiscovered, un-exploited areas in the Indian economy...take the case of hospital areas. There are not many private players and I think there is no equity openings in that field apart from escorts if I am not wrong.
The only problem I see is the rapid growth leading to a new benchmarking. There has to be some evil thing- don’t know but something tells me. It has never been so fast-how come suddenly this government has changed so much in the Indian economy. But I can say one thing, there are many forces keeping a strong watch and the scams , specially in the stock markets are out very fast...SEBI is doing a great job and I trust chidambaram-intelligent guy!
So let the bull run but ride it with caution. That’s what I will say! Reap the benefits but only that much what we can afford!

Good Luck!
Kanuj

On 3/27/06, Pankaj Bilandani wrote:
kanuj,
he is my cousin working for …….I asked him his viewpoint today..read his reply below..
regards

---------- Forwarded message ----------
….
Anyways, u asked me about the Indian market reaching its zenith and whether is it good enough anymore... now what i am giving u is just my personal view and not related to that of ……'s view all right...!! I was very skeptical about the market even when it crossed the 10,000 points limit... now its above 11000 ... P/E multiples of the market were displaying expensiveness even then but were being considered sorta ok... even at those levels the indian market was an overvalued one. now its crazy.... As of now, India is the most expensive market in Asia ex Japan based on either 12 month forward PE or dividend yields. 12months forward P/E for emerging high growth markets like china is 13.1 & brazil is 7.9 but for india it is 17.1... not a very good number... I am strongly believing that the market will turn direction but the timing is not sure... the fact is some bullish macro newsflow keeps coming in and the market keeps that well in mind all the time and stays up... but for how long...?? The current account deficit is deteriorating and the banks have given more credit than they should and the monetary conditions are tightening and thats not a very good picture too. What the market is facing right now is the over confidence normally seen in most emerging markets at peak times... and the situation is quite vulnerable to shocks... we have had very good exports growth and GDP growth and the rupee is strong right now but unfortunately stronger than people thought it would... so u understand what its like... some disturbing news and rupee starts tumbling down... rupee tumbles down and the govt intervenes to stabilise it by increasing interest rates... interest rates move up and the forward forecasts of strong economic growth will fall down resulting in a foreign capital flight from india... mind you the markets are buoyant just because FIIs have built up positions that support it... if that support goes thats that... its a herd instinct right now i believe... i would not build very high positions but keep myself limited to favorite stocks in the market and watch my positions closely on a daily basis and exit at the first signs of falling down...

hope this helps to some extent... sorry dont know more about the indian markets.. i deal with european markets more...
…………………………..
---------- End of Forwarded message ----------

Monday, March 27, 2006

Finance | Market zooms beyond 11000

Hello
Bhai Log!
Aaj ek aur badmashi hogayi hai! Jara sambhal ke rehne ka! Bole to thoda sa careful!
Market 11000 cross karke rukeli hai! Yes market has finally closed at above 11000 though it had crossed once earlier, but didnt stablise.
But for all those who are involved in trading business, i've one note : 'Darna zaroori hai'!!
 
Good Luck!
Kanuj


Blab-away for as little as 1¢/min. Make PC-to-Phone Calls using Yahoo! Messenger with Voice.

Monday, March 06, 2006

News | Business | Anil rings the BSE bell

Hello
Today the stock of Reliance 'Anil Ambani Camp' - Reliance Communications Ventures Ltd (RELCOM) was listed on the BSE. The listing of RELCOM helped soar the sensex to an all time high and a new record of 10737.18 – a gain of 139 points over Friday’s close. While RELCOM closed at a gain of 327.67% on the first day, due to a lot of volumized transaction. On the other hand, its only rival, Bharti Tele-Ventures Ltd registered a loss of  4.61 points.
 
 
Regards
Kanuj
 
Source Courtesy : Financial Express


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Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Hot news| Finance | Stock Market | Reliance Demerger-Price fixed at 714.90

Hello people,
The demerger of Reliance Industries {referred here-after as RIL} has finally taken place.The final price of Reliance Industries (details at http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/currentquote.cms?ticker=ril&ticker1=Searching&amp;exchange=B&Submit=Go%20target= ) stock has been fixed at 714.90 after the special trading session that was conducted between 8-9 am today, taking it down by 23% from yesterday's close of 928.15 (which was 55.05 higher from Monday's close of 873.10).
To understand this better, following is what is going on...and what are the implications
1. Each RIL shareholder will get 5 shares for each share he holds in the ratio specified by the company.
In stock market terms, each RIL shareholder will get one share of Reliance Energy Ventures, Reliance Capital Ventures with a face value of Rs 10 each and Reliance Communication Ventures and Global Fuel Management Services with a face value of Rs 5 each.
Here, taking an example of a share purchased for Rs 890 to see how this has to be split.
The main Reliance share will have a cost price of 52per cent of the total which, in this case, works out to Rs 462.8. The share of Reliance Communication Ventures will be valued at Rs 344.4 (38.7per cent), Reliance Energy Ventures Rs 64.9 (7.3per cent), Reliance Capital Ventures and Reliance Natural Resources shares will cost Rs 11.5 (1.3per cent) and Rs 6.2 (0.7per cent), respectively.

2. This meant that whoever has a share of RIL is in profit. No doubt, as expected, the demerged share has been taken to trade at a lower price, but still the extra shares that one gets, put him still in profitable position. RIL has been seeing news in the stock markets taking the SENSEX to a swing, moving from high to low. Day before yesterday the stock went down to 873.10 and then yesterday to a high of 937.5 before closing at 928.15 (though market closed flat at +2.94). It made news by being the stock to be the traded in largest volumes.
Reason : Investors who bought a Reliance share on January 17 will be eligible for the four additional shares. This benefit wont extend to investors if they buy the share on January 18.

3. Tax Implication : Since the demerged share is expected to trade at a lower price, the question that many have is whether the resulting difference would be considered as a short-term capital loss.


Expectation : Market price of RIL to go even higher today.
Reason: The original shareholder would still get the shares of the holding company even if he sells his RIL share on or after 18th.

....................

Just wanted to share this great piece of news which is making waves everywhere and is surely going to affect the Indian economy.

For more news check Google news at :
http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&lr=&rls=GGLM%2CGGLM%3A2005-52%2CGGLM%3Aen&amp;amp;tab=nn&ie=UTF-8&q=RIL+demerger&btnG=Search+News

Articles used as input :
RIL demerger: What goes where {Times News Network} : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1372297.cms
Buying RIL share: Know its tax implications {Times News Network} : http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1375858.cms


Regards
Kanuj

For more posts on finance, market, or tax please check the blogs :
My finance : http://financially-strong.blogspot.com/
My market : http://marketty-strong.blogspot.com/
My tax : http://taxably-strong.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer : This article contain personnal views expressed by the author with inputs from news articles and have no legal validation.